The Wall Street Journal’s Gerald Seib opined in Monday’s edition that if the GOP takes control of the Senate in November, which conventional wisdom believes more likely than not, that could produce a silver lining for President Obama - but his theory breaks down in several places.
“A look back shows that eras of evenly divided power—Congress fully controlled by one party, the presidency by the other—have turned out to be among the most productive. And if you are a president yearning for elusive legislative achievements in the final two years of your term, anything that makes Washington more productive would be welcome, even if attaining some of that productivity required trimming your ideological sails.”
Therein lies one major weakness in Seib’s theory. The likelihood of Obama changing his ideological stripes is slim to none. They run deep and are even more important to him than his public image.
“When power is evenly split in Washington, both parties have to temper their policies. They can worry less about fully satisfying their ideological bases.”
Sorry Gerald, Obama doesn’t need an ideological base to pull him to the left.
“When the two parties have an equal share of power, they also have an equal share of responsibility for what does and doesn’t get done—and have to worry about taking the blame in the even more important 2016 election if things don’t get done.”
The narcissist Obama doesn’t care whether a Democrat wins in 2016 – especially if Hillary is the nominee.
Seib used the Clinton presidency to buttress his theory.
“...substantive achievement can and does emerge from tension. To see how, merely look at the presidency of Bill Clinton, which Democrats remember fondly. Some of Mr. Clinton’s most notable achievements—a balanced budget, a welfare overhaul, badly needed changes to telecommunications law, a revamping of tax rates—took place when the Senate was in Republican hands.”
Once again, Seib ignorers the fact that Obama is deeply ideological. Clinton wasn't. Then, Seib forecast what this new, more productive divided government do in the next two years.
“In a new era of divided government, the most intriguing possibilities would lie in two areas: overhaul of the immigration system and a revamping of the tax code, at least the corporate tax. Both are badly needed. A clear majority in both parties readily acknowledges that.”
PREDICTION: If the Republicans House agrees to immigration reform that includes amnesty, there will be a third party presidential candidate in 2016 who will attract at least 10 percent of the electoral college vote by winning a few deep red states, leaving neither major party candidate with a majority, and leaving the election of the President in the hands of the House, where currently, 30 states have a Republican Majority congressional delegation.
Republican voters will have no trouble breaking to the third party candidate to register their opinion on amnesty because the worst they will end up with is a Republican president, and the GOP House just may elect the third party candidate - especially if he (or she) wins a majority of Red States.